April steel market twists and turns in May trend forecast


Jiangsu Xinhua Machinery & Equipment

Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

Add:Do not bridge town Xingcheng Road, Liyang

City, Jiangsu Province, No. 8
Contacts: Miss Shi

Copyright©Jiangsu Xinhua Machinery & Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd.    苏ICP备05032611号


April steel market twists and turns in May trend forecast

Page view

The trend of steel price in April is more and more tangled. After the rebound from the early low to the present position, the market and the steel plant have an obvious analysis of the view of the future market. The market wants to use the current situation of big inflation, hype the price of steel material increase to the downstream transmission cost, but the stock is still high in front of the eyes, and the supply is bigger than the demand. Under the environment, the steel plant has a more cautious view on the rear market, the band operation is the main way, the market strategy is carried out in the stage of the market price decline, the price of the steel production is pushed up, the stock cost of the whole market is higher, the price increase is grasped in the stage of the market price rising, and the customers are attracted to order the steel plant futures, so as to maintain a certain productivity utilization rate. At present, under the situation of uneven domestic and cold environment, how the trend of steel price in May will evolve into a focus of concern about the current high cost (including capital cost) market.

behind the tighter regulation

In the first quarter, GDP was 96311 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 9.7% over the same period, and a 2.1% increase in the chain. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.4% in March, a 32 consecutive month high and a 0.2% decline. In the first quarter, China's GDP was 96311 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year and a 2.1% increase in the chain. The added value of the first industry was 598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; the second industry added value of 46788 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%; the third industry added value of 43543 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1% over the same period.

Data show that in the first quarter of this year, prices of international energy, raw materials and metals rose by 18%, 13% and 5% respectively, compared with the end of last year. In the first quarter, the production and purchase prices of industrial producers in China rose by 7.1% and 10.2% respectively, while the pressure on the downstream is also beginning to show, and the increase of non food prices in CPI has increased continuously.

In March, after the data was published, the macro management layer issued the regulation signal to the market, 1) the people's Bank of China announced on the 17 day that from the 21, the deposit reserve ratio of the deposit type financial institutions was raised by 0.5 percentage points. Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that China's monetary policy should be tightened properly, and this trend will continue for some time. 2) from the beginning of early April, the State Council sent 8 inspector groups to carry out special supervision on the implementation of the State Council real estate market regulation and control policy measures in 16 provinces (districts and cities). Although the overall inspection results still need to be summarized, but most of the main points of the inspection group have put forward that the local policy of the central regulation of real estate still needs to be put into practice. According to the implementation of policies, we can not rule out the possibility of stricter regulation and control policies. Among them, the target of local land supply and housing price regulation is the key. Through the study of the economic situation in the first quarter of this year, the Standing Committee of the State Council, held in April 13th, has been re tuned to the next step of real estate regulation and regulation, insisting that the direction of regulation and control will not be shaken, and the regulation and control will not be relaxed. 3) the recent downward trend in the US dollar has again promoted the rapid appreciation of the renminbi. At the same time, the recent pace of appreciation of the renminbi is expected to continue to accelerate in the context of a further leap to the front desk as a new means of slowing down input inflation.

This year, along with the high price level and import inflationary pressure, the central bank is using &ldquo in the use of monetary policy, and its firepower is &rdquo. Anti inflation has become the first policy objective of monetary policy. And when the reserve rate and benchmark interest rate have been raised several times, the recent exchange rate instruments are also being incorporated into the anti inflation policy mix.

At present, from the study of the overall economic situation, we can get two main lines of internal and external policy regulation and control. In the meantime, we will take control of CPI as the main target of policy regulation and control. On the one hand, we will increase the control of the price rise of agricultural products, increase the production of agricultural products and control the cost of circulation, on the other hand, it will also be at a certain time. In the meantime, we should be vigilant against the rising factors of PPI to CPI. We will increase production intensity, dilute the impulse of price increase through oversupply, and solidify the liquidity of money.

We will accelerate the appreciation of the renminbi by taking advantage of the recent US assessment being downgraded and the US dollar index accelerating the fall. The goal of anti inflation monetary policy and the continued continuation of the weak dollar will constitute the two driving force for the continued upward trend of the RMB exchange rate. In the process of the appreciation of the RMB, the import and export ratio will be properly adjusted. This year, the import and export will become an anti inflation measure, because it will be convenient to control the funds that have not entered the domestic market through a variety of channels into the domestic market and wait for the revaluation of hot money. In the case of expansion, increasing the import of resources is also a means of settling hot money. In recent years, it is undoubtedly a normal economic phenomenon that the increase of the iron ore import port in the major ports in China is undoubtedly a kind of normal economic phenomenon in the context of the appreciation of the RMB.

After the game of market and steel factory began to fall sharply after the early spring festival, traders and steel mills formed a de facto price alliance. On the one hand, steel mills control the delivery speed of the market and reduce the impact of a large amount of resources on the price of the steel market, while traders lock the flow of steel resources through pallets and other forms. Sex and strong selling mentality create objective conditions for the rebound of steel prices.

In the near future, steel mills unanimously lowered the factory prices in May. In fact, it reflected that steel mills were cautious to see the price of the steel market in the later period. In April 19th, Baosteel finally chose to cut down the price of the factory, and then the domestic leading steel plants, such as the Wuhan Iron and steel company, reduced the price of the factory in May.