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Market prospect of gear forging during 12th Five-Year

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Market prospect of gear forging during 12th Five-Year

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“in 12th Five-Year, ” during the period, in order to accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing industry, improve the domestic level of major equipment, further encourage the development of large, precise, special forgings technology and equipment manufacturing, the &ldquo issued by the Ministry of industry and industry in 10 of 2010, the implementation scheme for the revitalization of machinery base parts and spare parts, and listed key drums. The development of the development of the gear transmission equipment 10 major categories, focusing on the development of high precision gear equipment, for gear industry supporting the forging manufacturing enterprises face a rare opportunity for development.

China gear transmission industry in “ 11th Five-Year ” during the period of rapid development. According to the data published by the National Bureau of statistics and the China gear professional association, the total industrial output value of the gear industry in China has increased year by year in 2005-2010 years, and the increase is above 20% year on year. In 2010, the total industrial output value of the industry was 94 billion 635 million yuan. The gear industry has become the largest industry in China's mechanical infrastructure.

Forgings, as an indispensable part of the gear industry, account for more than 30% of the total price. The market demand is increasing with the rapid development of downstream industries. In the future, with the improvement of the overall technical level of the large equipment manufacturing industry in China, the diversification of the transmission equipment and the continuous improvement of the technical content, the industry of the transmission equipment manufacturing will get more space for development, which will bring great opportunities for the development of the gear forging enterprises.

1. Wind power equipment

The gear in the main engine of the wind power is the key part of the wind power generation equipment. Its main function is to use the speed conversion function of the gear and speed up the rotary speed of the fan blade to the rotational speed required by the generator.

In recent years, due to global warming and the importance of energy conservation and emission reduction and new energy utilization, wind power market has maintained rapid growth in the past ten years. According to the World Wind Energy Association ( WWEA ), the global wind power installed capacity reached 159 million 210 thousand kilowatts at the end of 2009. In 2009, the new installed capacity was 37 million 500 thousand kilowatts, up 31%, the new installed capacity of 16 million kilowatts in the first half of 2010, and the accumulative installed capacity of 175 million kilowatts.

According to the report of the China Wind Energy Association, China's wind power continued to develop rapidly in 2010, with a new installed capacity of 18 million 928 thousand KW in the year, 37.13%, and a total installed capacity of 44 million 733 thousand and 300 kilowatts, exceeding the United States and becoming the world's largest wind power installed capacity.

With the continuous increase of installed capacity of wind power in China and the whole world and the continuous increase of installed capacity of single engine, the demand for wind power gear forging will be larger and larger. According to the State Energy Bureau, the national wind resources are 2 billion 600 million kilowatts. According to the national plan, the new wind power installed capacity is estimated to be about 10 million kilowatts each year in 2011-2020 years. In the future, the new wind power installed in China will mainly be more than 2.5MW, and the continuous improvement of wind power installed capacity will increase the demand for gear forging products. It is expected that in 2011-2015 years, the annual demand for gear forgings in China is about 16-21 tons. The sustainable development of the future wind power industry will play a role in the gear forging industry in our country. To the positive pull effect.

Two. Thermal power equipment

In China's power energy structure, thermal power has been dominant. By the end of 2010, the capacity of thermal power installed in China reached 707 million kilowatts, accounting for 73.44% of the total installed capacity of power generation equipment. According to the requirements of energy conservation and environmental protection in China, the State encourages the development of new energy power generation, such as wind power and solar energy. In the new generation installed capacity, the proportion of thermal power installed capacity will decline. However, according to the energy structure of our country, thermal power will still dominate the accumulative power energy structure.

In the current operating units, small thermal power units with high energy consumption and heavy pollution have a high proportion of small thermal power units. The small thermal power units of 100 thousand kilowatts and below the single unit account for nearly 30% of the capacity of the thermal power plant, which makes the gap between the energy consumption and the pollution discharge index of the power industry of our country is far from the international advanced level. In January 2007, the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the energy office issued a number of opinions on speeding up the shutdown of small thermal power units, and put forward &ldquo, &rdquo on the big pressure, and the shutdown of small thermal power units. In the thermal power plant market, China will phase out the small installed capacity thermal power plant with large capacity and environmentally friendly power generation equipment to reduce energy consumption, reduce pollution emission, reduce the backward production capacity, promote the adjustment of the power industry structure and energy conservation and emission reduction. In the next ten years, it is expected that the basic pattern of coal and electricity in China will not change, which is determined by the energy structure of our country. China is rich in coal resources and can be mined for a long time. At the same time, thermal power generation is less affected by seasonal factors. It is suitable for China's national conditions. The demand of future 300 thousand kilowatts and above thermal power unit will still be very vigorous. It is expected that the capacity of thermal power installed in China will reach 915 million kilowatts in 2015. Considering the shutdown of small thermal power, the annual increase of installed capacity is about 58 million kilowatts, and the capacity of single machine will be added to 30 per year. About 200 units of large coal-fired generating units are more than 10000 kilowatts. According to the calculation of 500 tons of gear forgings per large coal-fired unit, it is estimated that 100 thousand tons of gear forgings will be required every year in China.