In the third quarter of last year, the Zhejiang Provincial Government "interviewed" many enterprises, including Ningbo Iron and Steel, and requested that they stop production and repair for four months in September, October, November and December. At that time, Ningbo Iron and Steel suffered losses of up to 400 million yuan.
It is understood that following the wave of power rationing in central China such as Hunan and Hubei, many provinces across the country have also introduced power rationing measures recently. For example, some regions in Zhejiang Province have implemented the power restriction measures of "three on and one off" and "five on and two off"; Jiangxi Power Grid has begun to implement orderly electricity use, and strictly implement measures to avoid and stagger peak power consumption for large consumers with high energy consumption and low output; At the end of last month, Jiangsu Electric Power Company discussed with the top ten iron and steel enterprises in Jiangsu to limit power supply and guarantee power supply.
Wang Hong, general manager of Jiangxi Xinyu Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., told the reporter that the enterprise had received a notice from the government to cut the electricity load by 10%. Affected by this, the current output of Xinyu Iron and Steel (4937,44.00, 0.90%) has decreased by about 5%.
Chen Ping also revealed that the output of Ningbo Iron and Steel has also decreased by about 5% due to the impact of the power cut. However, the current range of power cut is not very large. It only limits the power of enterprises during the peak hours. Ningbo Iron and Steel has adjusted its production structure for this purpose, such as reducing the load during the peak hours and reducing the speed. At the low peak hours in the evening, it will drive full power and increase the production capacity.
An internal senior manager of Guangzhou Iron and Steel also told reporters yesterday that the current situation of power shortage in Guangzhou is also serious, and enterprises have been required to make several sets of backup plans during the peak period of power consumption, such as staggered production.
Zhou Xuedong, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Ningbo Iron and Steel Group, also predicted to reporters that the impact of power rationing may be intensified in the future. "In the long run, power rationing will become an inevitable practical problem with the arrival of power consumption peak, but it is still unknown which enterprises will be restricted by power rationing."
It is understood that some steel enterprises, such as Pinggang, Chongqing Iron and Steel, and Shuigang, which are currently located in the western region, also said that the steel rolling line was affected. However, due to the dual promotion of market demand and peak season effect, at present, most steel mills are operating at full capacity. The daily crude steel output in the first quarter has reached a record high for consecutive months. Most steel mills are operating at more than 90%, and do not want to "reduce production".
According to the above analysis of the senior management of Guangzhou Iron and Steel Group, the impact of power shortage on the steel plant should be viewed according to the situation. Some steel plants, such as Baosteel, Shagang, and Guanggang, use their own power plants to generate electricity and supply production, and may be slightly affected. Some steel plants that rely on outsourcing power and have strong production capacity and profitability will be greatly affected if the power limit is reduced. If the scale of power limit is expanded, resulting in a huge contraction of domestic steel supply, it may push up steel prices.
With regard to the impact of power rationing on steel enterprises, Ni Yin, an analyst at China Iron and Steel Research Center, pointed out that this power rationing is likely to drive the price of steel market to rise and fall sharply. Because of the obvious effect of power rationing last year, this year, it is not excluded that some people hoard goods ahead of time, or hoard stocks with low-price resources, in order to sell at a high price in the future, especially in the second half of the year, the demand for affordable housing is large, and the market will be tight because of supply, In addition to the expected price rise mentality, the price will rise rapidly. Once the price rises rapidly, the market will fall rapidly. The fluctuation of steel price will also drive the raw material market, especially the price of iron ore, which will make the steel production cost tend to be high again.
With regard to the impact on the future steel market, the latest analysis report of the domestic spot trading platform Xiben Shinkansen predicts that the situation of short term domestic power supply tension will be difficult to ease, and the power limit may drive the domestic steel price to continue to rise.