The market prospect of gear forgings during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is broad


During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, in order to accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing industry, improve the localization level of major equipment, and further encourage the development of large, precision, and special forging technology development and equipment manufacturing, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for the Revitalization of Mechanical Basic Parts Industry" in October 2010, which listed 10 major categories of gear transmission equipment that are mainly encouraged to develop, and focused on the development of high-precision gear equipment, Forging manufacturing enterprises supporting the gear transmission industry are facing a rare development opportunity.

China's gear transmission industry has developed rapidly during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Gear Professional Association, the total industrial output value of China's gear industry increased year by year from 2005 to 2010, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. In 2010, the total industrial output value reached 94.635 billion yuan. The gear industry has become the largest industry in China's mechanical basic parts.

Forgings, as an indispensable and important part in the gear industry, account for more than 30% of its total price. The market demand continues to grow with the rapid development of the downstream industry. It is expected that in the future, with the improvement of the overall technical level of China's large equipment manufacturing industry, the diversification of transmission equipment products and the continuous improvement of technical content, the transmission equipment manufacturing industry will gain greater development space, thus bringing huge development opportunities for gear forging manufacturing enterprises.

1、 Wind power equipment

The gear in the wind turbine main engine is the key component of the wind turbine generator. Its main function is to increase the rotation speed of the wind turbine blade to the rotation speed required by the generator by using the speed conversion function of the gear.

In recent years, the wind power market has maintained a rapid growth in the past decade due to global warming and the importance of energy conservation, emission reduction and new energy utilization. According to the report of the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), the total installed capacity of global wind power reached 159.21 million kilowatts at the end of 2009. The new installed capacity in 2009 was more than 37.5 million kilowatts, an increase of 31% year on year. In the first half of 2010, the new installed capacity was 16 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 175 million kilowatts.

According to the report of the China Wind Energy Association, China's wind power continued to develop rapidly in 2010, with a new installed capacity of 18.928 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 37.13%. The cumulative installed capacity reached 44.7333 million kilowatts, surpassing the United States and becoming the largest country in the world's wind power installed capacity.

With the continuous increase of the installed capacity of wind power in China and the world and the continuous improvement of the installed capacity of a single machine, the demand scale of wind power gear forgings will become larger and larger. According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, the national wind power resources are 2.6 billion kilowatts. According to the national plan, the annual installed capacity of wind power is expected to increase by about 10 million kilowatts from 2011 to 2020. In the future, the new installed capacity of wind power in China will mainly be more than 2.5MW. The continuous improvement of the installed capacity of wind power will drive the growth of the demand for gear forgings. It is estimated that the annual demand of wind power for gear forgings in China will be about 16-21 million tons in 2011-2015. The sustainable development of the wind power industry in the future will play a positive role in driving the gear forgings industry in China.

2、 Thermal power equipment

In China's power energy structure, thermal power has always played a leading role. By the end of 2010, China's installed capacity of thermal power reached 707 million kilowatts, accounting for 73.44% of the total installed capacity of power generation equipment. According to the requirements of energy conservation and environmental protection in China, the state encourages the development of wind power, solar energy and other new energy for power generation. The proportion of installed capacity of thermal power will decline in the new installed capacity of power generation. However, according to China's energy structure, thermal power will still play a leading role in the cumulative power energy structure.

Among the thermal power units currently in operation, the proportion of small thermal power units with high energy consumption and heavy pollution is relatively high, and small thermal power units with a single unit of 100000 kW and below account for nearly 30% of the installed capacity of thermal power, resulting in a large gap between the energy consumption and pollution emission indicators of China's power industry and the international advanced level. In January 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Office issued the Several Opinions on Accelerating the Shutdown of Small Thermal Power Units, proposing to shut down small thermal power units by "increasing the size of large units and reducing the size of small ones". In the thermal power generation equipment market, China will gradually phase out thermal power plants with large capacity, efficient and environmentally friendly power generation equipment and small installed capacity in order to reduce energy consumption, reduce pollution emissions, compress backward production capacity, and promote structural adjustment of the power industry and energy conservation and emission reduction. In the next ten years, it is expected that the basic pattern of China's coal-based electricity will not change, which is determined by China's primary energy structure. China is rich in coal resources and has a long exploitable life. At the same time, thermal power generation is less affected by seasonal factors, which is suitable for China's national conditions. In the future, the demand for thermal power units of 300000 KW and above will still be very strong. It is estimated that the installed capacity of thermal power in China will reach 915 million KW in 2015. Considering the shutdown of small thermal power, the annual installed capacity will increase by about 58 million KW, and about 200 large coal-fired units of 300000 KW and above will be added each year. According to the calculation of 500 tons of gear forgings required for each large coal-fired unit, it is estimated that 100000 tons of gear forgings are required annually in China.